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2009-10 Feasibility Study HUD Senior HousingA Market Feasibility Study for HUD Section 202 Senior Housing in Prepared for: Guardian Angels of Elk River Elk River, Minnesota October 2009 Albertville, Minnesota Research Inc. 615 First Avenue NE Suite 500 Albertville, MN 55413 612.338.0012 612-338-0012 (fax) 612-904-7979 615 First Avenue NE, Suite 500, Albertville, MN 55413 www.maxfleldresearch.com October 19, 2009 Mr. Dan Dixon President/CEO Guardian Angels of Elk River 280 Evans Avenue Elk River, MN 55330 Dear Mr. Dixon: We are pleased to present our study titled "A Market Feasibility Study for HUD Section 202 Se- nior Housing in Albertville, Minnesota." The study examined growth trends and demographic characteristics of the senior population in the Albertville primary market area (PMA), analyzed the market performance of comparable properties, and calculated demand for Section 202 independent senior housing. Based on our analysis, we find sufficient excess demand to support the proposed 47-unit subsidized senior de- velopment in Albertville. With its good location and concept as well as the depth of demand cal- culated in the PMA, the proposed development is projected to reach full occupancy in six to eight months after opening. We have enjoyed completing this study and are available should you have any further questions or require additional information. Sincerely, MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. (I Jay Thompson Vice President Attachment 612-338-0012 (fax) 612-904-7979 615 First Avenue NE, Suite 500, Albertville, MN 55413 www.maxfieldresearch.com TABLE OF CONTENTS Page PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY.................................................................... 1 StudyImpetus................................................................................................................. 1 Scopeof Services............................................................................................................ 1 SITELOCATION ANALYSIS........................................................................................ 2 Introduction/ Site Location............................................................................................ 2 SurroundingLand Uses................................................................................................... 4 Accessand Visibility...................................................................................................... 5 Proximity to Area Retail and Services............................................................................ 6 Appropriateness of Site for Senior Housing................................................................... 6 DEMOGRAPHICANALYSIS......................................................................................... 8 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 8 Primary Market Area Definition..................................................................................... 8 Population and Household Growth Trends..................................................................... 8 Older Adult Population and Household Trends.............................................................. 9 Older Adult and Senior Household Incomes.................................................................. 11 SeniorHousehold Tenure................................................................................................ 14 HomeValues................................................................................................................... 15 Summary of Demographic Analysis 16 ............................................................................... SENIOR HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS.................................................................. 17 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 17 Program Description — HUD Section 202 Program........................................................ 17 Supply of Subsidized Senior Housing in the PMA......................................................... 177 Pending Senior Housing in the PMA.............................................................................. 18 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS................................................................ 20 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 20 Subsidized Independent Senior Housing Demand Analysis ........................................... 20 Review of Development Concept................................................................................... 22 Conclusions / Projected Absorption................................................................................ 22 MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. LIST OF TABLES Table Number and Title Pa&e 1. Population & Household Growth Trends and Projections, PMA, 2000 to 2020..... 10 2. Older Adult Population & Household Age Distribution, PMA, 2000 to 2014........ 11 3. Older Adult and Senior Income Distribution, PMA, 2009 & 2014......................... 13 4. Older Adult Household Tenure, PMA, 1990 and 2000........................................... 14 5. Resale Trends of Single -Family Homes 15+ Years Old, PMA, 2006 to Sept. 2009 15 6. Existing Subsidized Independent Senior Properties, PMA, October 2009.............. 19 7. Subsidized Independent Senior Housing Demand, PMA, 2009 & 2014................. 21 MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF SERVICES Study Impetus Maxfield Research Inc. was engaged by Guardian Angels of Elk River to study the market feasi- bility for a senior housing development to be located in Albertville, Minnesota. Specifically, the proposed development is a 47-unit HUD 202 subsidized senior development that would be lo- cated on Highway 18 near Kassel Avenue. The subsidized senior development would be located on a campus with a market rate senior housing with services building that is planned to be added in future phases. Scope of Services The scope of this study includes an evaluation of the development potential at the proposed Site, a review of demographic trends and characteristics in the primary draw area for senior housing, collection and analysis of competitive market data, and an estimation of demand for independent senior housing that is subsidized through the HUD Section 202 program. The study concludes with a discussion of the proposed development concept for senior housing on the subject Site. This study includes both primary and secondary research. Primary research includes interviews with property managers/leasing agents and community development staff. All of the information on existing subsidized senior properties was gathered by Maxfield Research Inc. through primary research and is accurate to the best of our knowledge. Secondary research is credited to the source when used and, upon careful review of other factors that may impact projections, is used as a basis for analysis. Secondary sources of data include: ► U.S. Census Bureau, ► Minnesota Demographic Center, and / Claritas, Inc. Fieldwork for this study was conducted by Maxfield Research Inc. on October 14, 2009. This market feasibility study was completed on October 19, 2009. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. I SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS Introduction / Site Location This section of the report assesses the characteristics of the identified Site as they relate to the appeal for a senior housing development in Albertville, Minnesota. Albertville is a fast growing city of about 6,100 people, located approximately half way between Minneapolis and St. Cloud. Albertville is attractive because of its amenities, schools, businesses, housing and proximity to Minneapolis and St. Cloud that allows residents to commute north or south for work. Albertville is also the location of the Albertville Premium Outlet Mall with more than 100 stores. The Out- let Mall has a very large draw area giving the City visibility it may have not otherwise achieved. More specifically, the subject Site for the proposed senior development is undeveloped land lo- cated on County Road 18 at Kassel Avenue, or approximately one-third mile west of LaBeaux Avenue (Co. Rd. 19). Key points about this location as they pertain to the appeal for senior housing are discussed on the following pages. A map of the subject Site is shown below, while a site plan of the building's location on the subject parcel is shown on the following page. Site Location Qtsego y Y Albert ville Premium Outlet Mal � j Alber-t"vix�il$e Cottages�of, Albertville r.� _ ', �,� "iCoburn s Grocery l --4 SITE I: Albertville -St. -Michael Medical Clinic *'' • l 5Uth St NE >— -- —+— ` ^� St. Michael -Albertville H.'S. —� � w d V _ 241 St.( M>IC�ae1 �"Y — *Crow River, seniorenter G Library `, — MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. ` SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS Senior Housing * Guardian Angels MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 3 SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS Surrounding Land Uses The subject Site is located south of County Road 18 a few blocks west of County Road 19. The Site is 2.0± acres of a larger 14-acre undeveloped parcel in an existing residential neighborhood. The remainder of the larger parcel is planned for future phases of senior housing by Guardian Angels of Elk River to create a campus that along with the proposed subsidized senior building would also include market rate housing with services. As the site plan map on the preceding page shows, the subsidized senior building will eventually be attached to a market rate building that is planned to include 40 congregate units, 36 assisted living units, and 18 memory care units, plus 15,000 square feet of common area spaces. Prairie Run Cottage Homes are being developed to the north of County Road 18 across from the Site, and available single-family home sites are located directly south of the Site. Overall, the location is residential in nature, as it is surrounded to the west, south, and east by single-family homes and to the north by the cottage homes. Photographs of the Site and surrounding land uses are shown below and on the following page. View of Site looking to the southwest View of Site looking east MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 4 SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS Residential street east of the Site Prairie Run Cottage Homes across Co. Rd. 18 from the Site Access and Visibility Typical home on the west side of Site Single-family homes across Co. Rd. 18 northeast of the Site The subject location has excellent access off of County Road 18. County Road 18 in turn con- nects the Site to shopping, health care and services, churches, and other destination via County Road 19 (LaBeaux Avenue). The subject Site is only one-third mile west of County Road 19, which is a north -south artery extending from Otsego on the north to St. Michael and Hanover on the south. Visibility is good, as County Road 18 connects Albertville to Monticello and had an average daily traffic volume of 4,850 vehicles in 2008 at the subject Site, according to the Min- nesota Department of Transportation. While this is less than the traffic on County Road 19 (14,600 at the intersection with County Road 18), seniors in Albertville and the surrounding area will be familiar with the location. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS Proximity to Area Retail and Services Close proximity to area retail and services is an important consideration for households when choosing a housing location. While the location of the subject Site is residential in nature, the Site is still located in close proximity (1.5 miles) to Albertville Crossings shopping center and less than a half mile from the Albertville -St. Michael Clinic. The Albertville -St. Michael Clinic is located at the intersection of County Roads 18 and 19 and offers family medicine, internal medicine, OB/GYN, chiropractic, and orthopedic services. Albertville Crossings shopping center is 100,000+ square feet in size and is anchored by a Coborn's Marketplace. In addition to Albertville Crossings, additional shopping and services are located along Highway 241 in St. Michael and at the Albertville Premium Outlets. The Albertville Premium Outlets is 430,000 square feet in size and has 100+ stores, including Banana Republic, Brooks Brothers, Calvin Klein, Gap, Nautica, Old Navy, and Polo Ralph Lauren. The Outlet mall draws shoppers from a multi -state area and greatly increases visibility to Albertville. In addition to the above mentioned shopping and health care, several churches are located within about 1.5 miles from the Site in Albertville and St. Michael. These churches include St. Albert's Catholic Church and Life in Christ Lutheran Church in Albertville and St. Michael Catholic Church, Alleluia Lutheran Church, Northwest Bible Church, and Good News Alliance Church in St. Michael. Appropriateness of Site for Senior Housing The subject property is appropriate for senior housing as it has many positive attributes; among them being: ► The Site has good access to the surrounding area, which facilitates increased convenience to the individuals involved with senior housing, including seniors, their families, caregiv- ers, and personnel. The proposed building will be highly appealing to seniors because it will be adjoined to other senior housing on the larger campus. Not only will potential residents have access to more common spaces than is typical in a subsidized senior building, but residents would be able to visit spouses and friends living in the service -enriched units without having to walk outside. Additionally, home healthcare services provided by Guardian Angels of Elk River would be available through on -site offices. ► Guardian Angels of Elk River has strong name recognition and an excellent reputation in the surrounding area. The proposed development's affiliation with Guardian Angels of Elk River will aid in marketing and will enhance its appeal to area seniors. ► The Site is compatible with existing and surrounding residential land uses. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 6 SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS ► Retail, health care, and community services are located within a short drive of the Site. The nearby Albertville -St. Michael Medical Clinic in particular will be appealing to pro- spective residents. In summary, the proposed Site location should be very well received by seniors and their fami- lies seeking subsidized housing in Albertville and the surrounding communities. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 7 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Introduction Demographic characteristics and trends are an important component in assessing the potential demand for senior housing in any given PMA. This section of the report examines key factors related to the demand for senior housing. Included is a review of overall growth trends and an analysis of the demographic composition of the older adult and senior population for the area determined to be the primary draw area for senior housing at the subject location in Albertville. Primary PMA Definition Maxfield Research Inc. determined the draw area for senior housing in Albertville, Minnesota based on geographic and man-made barriers, traffic and community orientation patterns, and our experience in senior housing feasibility. The draw area, herein referred to as "Primary Market Area," or PMA, includes Albertville and the surrounding Cities of St. Michael, Hanover, Otsego, and the township of Monticello. We estimate this geographic area would provide 75% of the market support for senior housing on a site in Albertville. The remaining portion of demand —we estimate 250/0—for the subject development would be derived from outside the defined PMA. This portion of demand would be comprised of people currently residing just outside the PMA who have an orientation to the area (i.e. church, doctor, etc.), people who once resided in the area and desire to return, and parents of adult children liv- ing in the PMA. A map illustrating the geographic area included in the PMA for Albertville is shown on the next page. Population and Household Growth Trends Table 1 on Page 8 shows population and household growth trends for the PMA from 2000 to 2020. The data for 2000 is from the U.S. Census Bureau, while the 2010 and 2020 projections are calculated by Maxfield Research Inc. based on data obtained from Claritas Inc., Minnesota State Center, and local building permit trends. The following bullet points summarize growth trends and projections in the PMA. ► In 2010, the PMA is projected to reach a population of 41,800 and a household base of 14,340. This represents growth of 16,638 people (+66.1%) and 4,783 households (50.0%). Growth was very robust in the PMA during the 2000s as the Twin Cities Metro Area ex- panded into the area with the development of several housing subdivisions. ► From 2010 through 2020, the PMA is projected to continue growing, but at a slower rate than the previous decade with population increasing by 17,300 people (+41.4%) and households increasing by 8,510 (+59.3%). MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 8 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Primary Market Area Between 2000 and 2010, the population growth rate in the PMA was greater than the household growth rate since most of the new homes added were single-family homes that attracted families with children, or larger household sizes (people per household). This decade, a greater share of the household growth is projected to be among older adults without children and seniors. Thus, be- tween 2010 and 2020, the household growth rate is projected to be greater than the population growth rate. The result will be a decline in the average household size from 2.91 people per household in 2010 to 2.59 people per household in 2020. Because the impetus of this study is to determine the demand for age -restricted housing, from this point forward, our demographic analysis focuses on the PMA's older population and house- hold base. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 9 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS TABLE 1 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2000 to 2020 -------- Chan e--------- Census -- Projections -- 2000 to 2010 2010 to 2020 2000 2010 2020 No. Pct. No. Pct. IN z .,.. .' Albertville 3,621 6,300 9,900 2,679 74.0 3,600 57.1 Remainder of PMA 21,541 35,500 49,200 13,959 64.8 13,700 38.6 PMA Total 25,162 41,800 59,100 16,638 66.1 17,300 41.4 iP Albertville 1,339 2,330 3,750 991 74.0 1,420 60.9 Remainder of PMA 8,218 12,010 19,100 3,792 46.1 7,090 59.0 PMA Total 9,557 14,340 22,850 4,783 50.0 8,510 59.3 Sources: U.S. Census; Claritas, Maxfield Research Inc. Older Adult (Age 55+) Population and Household Trends Table 2 shows the age distribution of people and households age 55 and older in the PMA. Data presented for 2000 is obtained from the U.S. Census. Estimates for 2009 and 2014 projections are provided by Claritas, Inc., a nationally recognized demographic services firm. ► The PMA's older adult and senior population and household bases experienced robust growth in all age segments between 2000 and 2009. During this period, the PMA's older adult and senior population (55+) grew by 3,349 people (+121.2%) and 2,052 households (+127.3%). ► Seniors must be age 62 and over to qualify for HUD 202 housing, and the primary target market will be seniors ages 65+. In 2009, the PMA is estimated to have 2,589 seniors ages 65 and over, a 101.3% increase from 2000. By 2014, the PMA is projected to have 3,724 seniors ages 65 and over, an increase of 43.8% over the next five years. This strong growth will create demand for additional senior housing, including subsidized senior housing. ► Household growth trends are an important factor in assessing demand for housing products since households represent occupied housing units. Similar to population growth trends, household growth in the age 65+ cohorts is projected to continue to be strong. Between 2009 and 2014, the PMA's 65+ age cohorts are projected to add a total of 774 households (+48.6%). MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 10 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS TABLE 2 OLDER ADULT POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD AGE DISTRIBUTION PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2000 to 2014 POPULATION Age 55 to 64 1,478 3,524 4,855 2,046 138.4% 1,331 37.8% 65 to`69 439 1,010 1,515 571 130.0% 505 50.1% 70 to 74 348 637 974 289 83.0% 337 52.8% 75 to 79 235 432 582 197 83.9% 150 34.7% 80 to 84 161 296 358 135 83.9% 62 20.9% 85+ 1 1031 1 214 1 296 1 111 108.0% 1 82 38.1% Total 55+ 2,764 6,113 8,579 3,349 121.2% 2,466 40.3% Total65+ 1,286 21589 3,724 1,303 101.3%0 1,135 43.9% Total75+ 499 942 1,236 443 88.9% 293 31.1% Tot. Pop. 1 24,6031 1 41,2001 1 47,0001 1 16,597 67.5%1 1 5,800 14.1% HOUSEHOLDS Age 1 I 1 55 to 64 903 2,070 2,936 1,167 129.3% 865 41.8% 65 to 69 190 624 967 434 228.2% 344 '; 55.1% 70 to 74 184 393 609 209 113.3% 216 55.1% 75 to 79 152 281 396 129 85.0% 115 40.9 80 to 84 109 185 237 76 69.4% 52 28.3% 85 + 74 111 1 159 1 37 ' 50.5% 1 47 42.7% Total55+ 1,612 3,6641 1 5,303 2,052 127.3% 1,640 44.8% Total65+ 709 1,593 1 2,369 884 124.7% 774 48.6% Total75+ 335 577 1 792 242 72.3% 214 37.1% Tot. HH 1 8,0061 1 14,1301 1 16,9001 1 6,124 76.5%1 1 2,770 19.6% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Claritas, Inc.; Maxfield Research Inc. Older Adult and Senior Household Incomes Table 3 shows income levels for older adult and senior households in the PMA in 2009 and 2014 based on information provided by Claritas, Inc. It is important to note that the data does not ac- count for the asset base of senior households, nor supplemental income that a senior household could gain from the sale of a home or from family members. Along with homeownership data (shown in Table 4), the data in Table 3 helps determine the current and future demand for subsi- dized senior housing. This data is incorporated into demand calculations, which are presented in a following section. According to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), housing affordability is considered to be up to 30% of adjusted household income. However, it has been demonstrated that senior households are willing to pay 40% or more of their incomes for independent housing that meets their needs. Older, frailer seniors in need of intensive support services will typically spend a much greater proportion of their incomes on housing. In order for residents to qualify MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 11 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS for Section 202 housing their household incomes must be lower than 50% of the Median Family Income. Income limits established by HUD in Wright County for 2009 are $29,350 for a one - person household and $33,550 for a two -person household at 50% of the Median Family Income ("MFI"). We have evaluated household incomes of the senior population in the PMA focusing on senior households with very low incomes as defined by HUD. While Table 3 presents income data for households as young as 55, only those over the age of 62 would be eligible to live at the pro- posed project. Senior households over the age of 62 with incomes less than $30,000 are the tar- get market for the proposed Section 202 development (we use $30,000 instead of the income - limit for two -person households of $33,550 since most of the target market are singles). The fol- lowing are key points about senior incomes in the PMA. In 2009, it is estimated that 715 households ages 65 and over (45% of age 65+ households) had incomes of less than $30,000 and would qualify for low-income housing. A large por- tion of these households (320) are age 75 and over, accounting for approximately 45% of all 65+ senior households in the PMA that would qualify for low-income housing. It is impor- tant to note that to be eligible for Section 202 housing, a senior household not only has to meet income limits, but at least one person per household must be over the age of 62. We es- timate that there are an additional 55 households ages 62 to 64 with incomes below $30,000. ► It is likely that many of the residents who would live in the proposed development would have incomes of 30% or below MFI ($17,600 in Wright County). In 2009, there were 239 households age 65 and over with incomes of $15,000 or less (15% of all 65+households). Through 2014, the number of senior households over the age of 65 with incomes less than $33,000 (adjusted for inflation) is estimated to increase to about 975 households (+36%). In 2014, we forecast there to be approximately 65 income -qualified households age 62 to 64, 565 income -qualified households age 65 to 74, and 410 income -qualified households age 75 and older. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 12 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS TABLE 3 OLDER ADULT (55+) INCOME DISTRIBUTION PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2009 & 2014 55-64 65-74 75+ Total 65+ No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. -19 2.4 103 10.1 136 23.6 Under $15.000 239 15.0 $15,000424,999 66 3.2 228 22.5 130 22.5 358 22.5 $25.000-$34.999 138 6.7 127 13.5 109 18.8 236 14.8 $35,000-$49,999 196 9.5 193 19.0 101 17.5 294 18.5 $50.000-$74.999 582 28.1 186 18.3 58 10.1 24-1 15.3 $75,000499,999 420 203 106 10.4 18 3.1 124 7.7 $100,000 or more 619 29.9 ? 25 1 3 98 6.2 2.070 100.0 1.017 100.0 577 100.0 Total 1,594 100.0 Median Income $75.248 $38,858 $27,051 1 1-$33,448 I 55-64 65-74 75+ Total 65+ No Pct. No. Pct. No. Pet. No. Pct. 51 65 133 263 742 561 1.121 1.8 12 4.5 8.9 35.3 19.1 38.2 142 236 2110 285 all 185 187 9.0 15.0 14.6 18.1 19.7 11.8 11.9 155 151 132 130 147 22 55 19.6 19.1 16.7 16.4 18.5 2.8 7.0 Under $15.000 $15,000 $24,999 $25.000-$34.999 $35,000-$49,999 $50.000474.999 $75.000-$99.999 $100.000 or more 197 387 362 414 457 208 242 12.6 16.3 15. -, 17.5 19.3 8.8 10.2 2.936 100.0 1.576 100-01 792 100.0r Total 1 2.368 100.0 Median Inccsme $84.533 $44,485 6 Change 2009 to 2014 55-64 65-74 75+ Total 65+ Under $15.000 $15,000424,999 $25.000434.999 $35,000+ No. ' I 5 870 Pct 4.7 -1.6 -3.7 47.9 No. 39 8 103 410 Pct. 37.7 3.3 80.6 73.4 No. 19 21 24 151 Pct. 13.9 16.2 21.9 74.7 No. 58 29 126 561 Pct. 242 8.0 53.6 73.8 Total 866 41.8 559 55.0 21S 37.3 774 48.6 Sources: Claritas, Inc.; Maxfield Research Inc. MAXr1ELD RESEARCH INC. 13 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Senior Household Tenure Table 4 shows the number of senior households that owned and rented their housing in the PMA in 1990 and 2000, according to the U.S. Census. This information gives an indication of the pro- pensity to rent among the senior household base. The data is also useful in that it lends insight regarding the number of households that do not own their homes and would not be able to derive additional income from the home resale, which often disqualifies households from low-income housing. The following bullet points summarize key findings from Table 4. In 2000, senior households (age 65+) had a homeownership rate of 79% in the PMA. Gener- ally, homeownership rates decline as households age. In the PMA, the homeownership rate declined from 93% among age 55 to 64 households to 82% among age 65 to 74 households and 75% among age 75+ households. • As seniors age, they may no longer desire, or be able, to maintain their single-family homes. They may prefer to move to housing that offers them greater freedom from maintenance and/or offers them support services. Seniors typically begin to consider moving into inde- pendent rental housing in their 70s. In Minnesota and the seven -county Metro Area, 30% and 35%, respectively, of seniors ages 75 and over rented their housing in 2000. In the PMA, only 25% of seniors ages 75 rented. If there were a greater supply of age -restricted rental housing in the PMA available to area seniors, the percentage of seniors ages 75 and over who rented their housing would likely be slightly higher. TABLE 4 OLDER ADULT HOUSEHOLD TENURE PRIMARY MARKET AREA 1999 & 2000 ------- Age of Householder -------- 55-64 65-74 75+ Total65+ Own Rent Own Rent Own Rent Own Rent No. of Households 788 62 347 76 243 79 590 155 Homeownership Rate 93% 82% 75% 79% No. of Households 347 25 2531 21 112 46 365 67 Homeownership Rate 93% 92% 71% 84% No.of Households 441 37 941 55 131 33 225 88 Pc 56% 60% 27�% 72% 54% 42% 38% 57% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Maxfield Research Inc. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 14 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Home Values Maxfield Research gathered data on resale prices for single-family homes at least 15 years old (built in 1994 or before) in the PMA. Only older homes were included, since most seniors have lived in their homes for more than the past decade. Data was compiled from the Regional Multi- ple Listing Service of Minnesota (''MLS"). Analyzing trends in the for -sale market provides in- dication of how easily a senior homeowner will be able to sell their home and the amount of eq- uity that will be derived from the sale, which could disqualify some seniors in the market for subsidized housing. The following points are a summary of key findings. The average single-family home resale price in the PMA declined from $244,277 in 2006 to $153,305 so far in 2009 (through September). The PMA, along with most of the Twin Cities Metro Area and the nation, is experiencing a sharp downturn in the housing market after years of record gains earlier this decade. Much of the decline in the average resale price is attributed to the sale of bank owned, or foreclosed homes, which tend to have discounted prices. Nonetheless, seniors desiring to sell their homes will realize prices much lower than during previous years. TABLE 5 RESALE TRENDS OF SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES 15+ YEARS OLD PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2006 through September 2009 No. of Average Pet. Avg. Year Sales Price Change DOM 2006 120 $244,227 -- 100 2007 92 $216,818 -11.2% 151 2008 95 $197,388 -9.0% 161 2009* 85 $153,305 -22.3% 162 * Through September Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service; Maxfield Research Inc. ► Data from the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) suggest that the vast major- ity of senior homeowners (85%) have paid off their mortgages and own their homes free and clear. This indicates that senior homeowners usually have more substantial equity than younger homeowners and can usually generate additional income upon the sale of their home. ► Based on the 2009 year-to-date average sale price of $153,305 in the PMA, a senior house- hold would be able to derive an additional $5,000 income annually, or $415 per month, after accounting for real estate and moving costs (7% of total home sale price) and factoring a 3.5% annual return. This interest income would be available to the senior indefinitely. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 15 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS As previously mentioned, seniors who generate substantial home equity from the sale of their home may disqualify for subsidized senior housing. Our demand calculations, presented later in this study, reduce the market potential by senior homeowners who may be in this situation. Summary of Demographic Analysis ► The overall population and household growth in the PMA is expected to continue to increase during this decade and the next. The older adult and senior population is projected to experi- ence substantial growth over the next five years with the addition of over 1,135 people (65+) and 775 households. ► There is currently a strong proportion (nearly 45%) of the senior household base that would be income -qualified for Section 202 housing. In 2009, there are an estimated 770 age- and income -qualified households. This age- and income -qualified market is expected to grow by 270 households over the next five years. ► With the housing market downturn, seniors who own their homes have lost some home eq- uity that may have otherwise pushed them over the income threshold for Section 202 hous- ing. ► Overall, we expect there to be a strong increase in the market support for subsidized senior housing over the next decade, based on our analysis of the demographic factors of the PMA. With the increasing need, it is likely that a new Section 202 senior housing development will be well received. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 16 SENIOR HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Introduction The preceding demographic analysis examined factors relating to the demand for subsidized sen- ior housing. This section provides an overview of the current supply of subsidized senior hous- ing in the PMA. Additionally, this section identifies any planned or proposed senior housing de- velopments that may impact demand for additional senior housing products in the Albertville PMA. Program Description - HUD Section 202 Program The proposed project would be developed with the assistance of funding from the HUD Section 202 program. The Housing for the Elderly Program, most often referred to by its section number — Section 202, was originally included in the National Housing Act of 1959. Although the pro- gram's mission and administration has been altered over time, the Section 202 program remains the primary Federal funding program for subsidized housing for seniors. The program's mission is to provide supportive housing for very -low income elderly (50% of area median income) to enable them to live independently but in an environment that will allow them to receive basic services, such as meals, transportation, housekeeping, and health care usually through an addi- tional subsidized program. Through HUD, the Federal government provides interest -free loans to private, non-profit organi- zations to finance supportive senior housing. The capital advance does not have to be paid, as long as the project continues to serve very -low income elderly residents for 40 years. The income qualifications for Section 202 housing in Albertville (which is included in the Min- neapolis -St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area) are $29,350 for a one -person household and $33,550 for a two -person household, which are the income thresholds at 50% of the area median income. Residency is restricted to seniors age 62 and older. Qualified residents pay 30% of their adjusted gross income in rent and utilities. Supply of Subsidized Senior Housing in the PMA In order to assess the current market performance of subsidized senior housing in the vicinity of the subject Site, Maxfield Research inventoried subsidized senior housing properties located in and near the PMA. Information on these existing senior housing properties is summarized in Table 6. The following are key findings that specifically relate to the supply of subsidized senior housing in the PMA: We identified only one existing subsidized senior property in the PMA — Ridge Drive in St. Michael. Ridge Drive is a 42-unit property subsidized through Rural Development. It was built in 1980 and consists of a 26-unit two-story building and a 16-unit one-story building. All but two of the units are one -bedroom units. The income -limit for eligibility at Ridge Drive is $50,300 for singles and $56,700 for couples (higher than the income -limit for HUD Section 202 buildings). However, except for 26 units that have Rental Assistance available, MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 17 SENIOR HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS residents must pay at least a basic rent (estimated at $400) even if 30% of their AGI is lower. At the time of our survey in October 2009, all of the units at Ridge Drive were fully occu- pied. Because there was only one subsidized senior property in the PMA, we surveyed properties in surrounding communities (Elk River, Rogers, and Monticello) to help assess the market for subsidized senior housing in the area. The six surveyed properties in the surrounding communities totaled 221 units. At the time of our survey in October 2009, there were no va- cancies. This indicates that pent-up demand exists for additional subsidized senior units in and near the PMA. ► Of the six surveyed properties near the PMA, four are HUD Section 202 properties, one is a Rural Development Section 515 property, and one is a HUD Section 8 property. All of the properties are independent, although residents can contract home health care services. ► The building amenities and unit features are modest for subsidized housing developments. Most communities have a community room and common laundry facilities, an outdoor gath- ering area, an elevator, and surface parking. Guardian Oaks in Elk River is attached to the Elk River Senior Center that provides congregate dining. ► In addition to senior housing developments identified in Table 7, seniors in a financial need - based situation may choose to reside in a non age -restricted development in order to find subsidized housing. While some of these units are occupied by seniors, we do not consider these buildings to be directly competitive since they are not age -restricted. Pending Senior Housing in the PMA Maxfield Research Inc. contacted planning departments at PMA communities to identify any proposed or planned senior housing developments. As of October 2009, there were no other planned or proposed senior housing developments that would compete with the proposed subsi- dized senior building in Albertville. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 18 E a a? ''' " C U a; �n II .a •o II v � p � O '� c 04 o T a `° c3 a c04 i U y Or w o o a N -° (ia ❑❑ 00°y c� v v O E . 4 o f v bA o U u ° 0 °° t a ° o o ca ca a a ti c°i is c0 w v bL1 r y bq ❑ poo v GOi oo O U v > t' :3 y N ti N E dp � cd > E O Y 8 Q 'ci .O o z = o a c °o c° U 3 .� U vUi x U a 5 W m xQ -40 v o e o 0 0 0 W all (+1 M en O � W Q aLi w0..p ✓ 0 0 ooON ND� ° o Inc wa �� ' h� z� a ca N k s:� xrx �� cC_•=• _�� V 0 W ie c � o > > N u F q y ,b o i L� Y N � L U N d � 4 � c "o �c o awe�r,n� �ov'o a°.° o °j0 0 WMW QNC A." Ua� v� CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS Introduction The impetus for this study is to assess the demand potential for Section 202 senior housing in Albertville, Minnesota. Earlier sections of this report examined the development potential of the Site, growth trends and demographic characteristics of PMA seniors, current senior housing market conditions, and the existing supply of competitive and pending senior housing projects. This section of the report forecasts demand, reviews the development concept, and projects ab- sorption of the proposed project. Subsidized Independent Senior Housing Demand Analysis Table 7 presents our demand calculations for subsidized independent senior housing in the PMA. In order to arrive at the potential age/income-qualified base for subsidized independent senior housing, we include all senior households (age 62+) with incomes less than $30,000, which is about the one -person household maximum income for Section 202 housing ($29,350). We use $30,000 instead of the two -person household maximum income of $33,550 since the vast major- ity of residents are singles. We deduct senior homeowners who earn between $25,000 and $30,000 from the potential market since these seniors will likely have home equity that may cause them to disqualify for subsidized senior housing. In total, we estimate the number of age/income-qualified older adult and senior households in the PMA in 2009 is 660 households. To estimate the need for subsidized housing in the PMA, we apply a 20% capture rate to the age/income-qualified market in the PMA in 2009. This capture rate is derived from the percent- age of age/income-qualified seniors in the Twin Cities Metro Area and applying it to the PMA age/income-qualified market. Based on this calculation, we estimate total demand for 132 units of subsidized senior housing from PMA residents. From this local potential demand, we subtract the existing number of competitive housing units in the PMA. There is one development — Ridge Drive I & II in St. Michael with 42 units. Sub- tracting these units, minus a 5% vacancy factor, results in excess demand from local seniors for 92 units in 2009. We estimate that one -quarter of the demand for subsidized senior rental housing will be gener- ated by seniors currently residing outside the PMA. This additional demand includes seniors who have an orientation to the area (i.e. church, doctor, etc.), seniors who previously lived in the area and desire to move back, or seniors who desire to move near their adult children who al- ready live in the area. The addition of demand from outside the PMA results in a total excess demand for 123 units in 2009. To calculate demand in 2014, we increase the income -qualifications to account for inflation. Following the same methodology and holding constant the number of competitive units (we did not identify any new product proposed to come on-line), demand is forecast to deepen over the next five years — to 181 units in 2014. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 20 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS TABLE 7 SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2009 & 2014 Age of Householder Age of Householder 62-64* 65-74 75+ 62-64* 65-74 75+ Number of households in the PMA w/ incomes of <$30,000' 55 395 321 67 562 412 Households w/ incomes of $25,000 - $30,000 20 63 54 20 115 66 (times ) Homeownership rate x 93% 82% 75% x 93% 82% 75% (equals) Disqualified homeowner households = 19 52 41 = 19 94 50 Potential market base by age = 36 343 281 = 48 468 363 660 Potential market total in the PMA 879 (times) % of seniors needing/desiring subsidized senior housing x 20% x 20% (equals) Demand potential from PMA residents = 132 = 176 (minus) Existing/pending subsidized senior units in the PMA' 40 40 (equals) Excess PMA subsidized demand potential = 92 = 136 (plus) Demand from outside the PMA 25% + 31 + 45 (equals) Total Excess Demand in the PMA = 123 = 181 * Estimated number out of the 55 to 64 age cohort in Table 3. ' Income -qualifications for 2014 are defined as households earning less than $33,000 reduced by homeowner households earning between $28,000 and $33,000. z Includes competitive units listed in Table 6 at 95% occupancy (market equilibrium). Source: The first penetration rate in Table 7, project penetration, is calculated as the number of units at the subject development (at market equilibrium, or 95% occupancy) multiplied by the percentage of total demand drawing from the PMA (75%). This figure is divided by the total age/income- qualified market (660 units in 2009) to equal a project penetration rate of 5.1% in 2009, de- creasing to 3.8% in 2014. The second penetration rate calculated in Table 8, gross market penetration, is calculated as the total number of subsidized senior units in the PMA, including the proposed development (at market equilibrium, or 95% occupancy), divided by the total age/income-qualified market. The gross market penetration rate for the PMA is calculated to be 11.1% in 2009, decreasing to 8.4% in 2014. In general, penetration rates of 15% to 25% for gross market penetration and 5% to 10% for pro- ject penetration rates are considered to be normal for subsidized independent senior housing. The calculated penetration rates for the subject development are very achievable and show strong support for additional subsidized senior housing. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 21 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS The decreases in penetration rates between 2009 and 2014 indicate that the disparity between demand and supply of subsidized senior housing will continue to grow. It is likely that the sub- ject development will meet only a small percentage of the total need for subsidized housing due to the depth of demand in the PMA. Review of Development Concept The subject development is a three-story building that is proposed to include 47 subsidized units that would be restricted to senior households (age 62+) with incomes at or below 50% of the Area Median Income. As of 2009, these income -restrictions are $29,350 for a one -person household and $33,550 for a two -person household. All households will play 30% of their in- come for rent at the subject development. The unit mix will be all one -bedroom units with 539 square feet. The development would have the following common area amenities: ► Lobby ► Office ► Community Room/Dining ► Laundry Rooms (each floor) ► Resident Storage Cubicles (each floor) ► Trash Room with Chute (each floor) ► Tub Room ► TV/Game Room ► Exercise Room Other commons areas considered for the development include a computer station, screened porch, and private dining room. Conclusions / Projected Absorption Based on our review of the senior growth trends in the PMA, our assessment of the existing sen- ior housing market, projected demand calculations, and our review of the development concept, we project that the proposed development will absorb rapidly. The lack of vacancies in area sub- sidized senior properties, combined with our calculations that showed excess demand for 123 units in the PMA in 2009 growing to about 180 units in 2014, indicates that pent-up demand ex- ists for additional subsidized senior units in the PMA. We project that the proposed 47-unit development would reach full occupancy six to eight months after opening for occupancy. We anticipate that 30% of the units would be leased at the time of opening and that four to five units would be leased per month after opening to achieve full occupancy (95%) within six to eight months. The above absorption projections assume that a professional marketing campaign begins at least MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 22 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS six months prior to the development opening and that no other competitive product is marketing simultaneously with the subject development. The absorption projections also assume that the new development opens in spring or early summer as a winter opening could extend the absorp- tion period somewhat. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 23